## Spatiotemporal Evolution of Hedging Effects in Asia-Pacific Countries Amid Sino-US Competition: Insights from Massive Event Data### AbstractThe pressure of Sino-US strategic competition compels countries in the Asia-Pacific region often to adopt hedging strategies to minimize risk and protect their interests. However, quantitative evaluations of the implementation effects of hedging strategies adopted by Asia-Pacific countries amidst Sino-US competition have been limited due to a lack of theoretical evaluation frameworks and methods. This study proposes a novel four-quadrant evaluation theoretical framework and constructs a Geopolitical Relation Index and a Comparative Relation Index based on the Global Database of Events, Language, and Tone massive event data. Since 2000, the effects of hedging strategies in 19 Asia-Pacific countries against China and the US have been dynamically quantified. The research reveals that Asia-Pacific countries' dynamic performances over 24 years can be categorized into three groups: significantly closer to China, significantly closer to the US, and swinging. Since implementing the Belt and Road Initiative, countries close to China have deepened their ties, while those aligned with the US have strengthened their ties. Asia-Pacific countries have demonstrated similar characteristics from Obama's presidency to Biden's presidency. The results contribute to the dynamic assessment and ongoing monitoring of the execution effects of Asia-Pacific countries' diplomatic strategies towards China and the US, offering valuable insights for timely refinement of their foreign policies.### IntroductionAs a crucial global economy and political engine, the Asia-Pacific region has significantly influenced the world through its prosperity and stability. However, owing to geopolitical realities and strong US intervention, the Asia-Pacific region has been involuntarily caught in the vortex of Sino-US strategic competition, greatly increasing uncertainty in foreign policy formulation and implementation. This uncertainty negatively affects the relationships between countries and major powers, challenging global sustainable development. Strategic competition has become a prominent feature of Sino-US relations since the beginning of the 21st century, profoundly affecting regional and global geopolitical landscapes. Simultaneously, strategic competition between the US and China will continue for several decades.As Sino-US relations enter a phase of strategic competition, the regional order has become more complex and uncertain. The Asia-Pacific region faces major challenges in the strategic realignment and diplomatic decision-making between the two major powers. Specifically, there are concerns about the credibility of the states' security commitments and the possibility that China may significantly influence the region through its growing economic position.Faced with the pressures of Sino-US strategic competition, countries in the Asia-Pacific region often adopt hedging strategies to secure the defense advantages of aligning with the US while also benefiting economically from China. These strategies cover multiple aspects including politics, economy, security, and military.### Theoretical Evaluation Framework and Quantitative Methods#### Definition of Hedging StrategyA clear definition of the hedging strategy is essential before embarking on a quantitative assessment in this study. However, just as speakers and writers exercise caution, evasion, and ambiguity through hedging words, this vague quality persists when a nation takes on the role of a hedging initiator. According to Goh (2005), Kuik (2008), Alan (2016), and Koga (2018), hedging occurs when a country seeks to offset risks by pursuing multiple policy options to produce mutually counteracting effects under high uncertainty and high stakes.#### Four-Quadrant Theory Evaluation FrameworkOwing to the limitations of existing hedging theories and analytical frameworks in evaluating the effects of hedging strategies by third-party countries amid Sino-US strategic competition, it is essential to develop a novel theoretical assessment framework. When one country hedges against another, the most intuitive manifestation is the dynamic relationship between the two countries. Since how a country interacts in global affairs is the most direct reflection of its diplomatic strategies with other countries, geopolitical relationships can capture the effects of hedging strategies for Asia-Pacific countries during different periods of Sino-US strategic competition.Considering that both active and passive actors are in a diplomatic event, this could lead to different perceptions of the relationship between the two countries. The framework takes a third-country perspective to quantify its geopolitical relationship with the US and China to ensure comparability.The theoretical evaluation framework is based on geopolitical relations. The interactions between the two nations include cooperation and conflict, showing the basis of geopolitical connections between the states. However, it is difficult to accurately understand the dynamic evolution of international relationships when these two aspects are combined. To better develop the theoretical evaluation framework, we propose a Geopolitical Relation Index (GRI), including two dimensions, denoted as GRI(+) and GRI(\u2212), respectively. A higher GRI(+) indicates a closer cooperation. Conversely, the higher GRI(\u2212)) indicates a serious conflict. In this study, the GRI of Asia-Pacific states with China and the US are GRIiC and GRIiU, where i, C, and U represent Asia-Pacific states, China, and the US, respectively. We then constructed a Comparative Relation Index (CRI) to measure the relative distance of a country's geopolitical relationship with China and the US. The formula used is as follows:(1)(2)Considering whether CRIi is greater than 0 as the cutoff point, the relative relationship of Asia-Pacific country i between China and the United States can be divided into four quadrants, as shown in Fig.1.### Data Sources and Research Methodology#### Data SourcesInternational relations are complex and volatile, involving political, economic, security, and military aspects. Conventional analytical techniques, such as case studies of major events, policy analyses, and single-topic studies, are inherently static. This limitation renders them incapable of providing accurate and comprehensive analyses of the dynamic changes in geopolitical relationships. Consequently, it is impossible to evaluate the effects of hedging strategies accurately. The quantification of international relations has become increasingly prevalent based on event data.The Global Database of Events, Language, and Tone (GDELT) is a massive event database based on the Conflict and Mediation Event Observations (CAMEO) event coding framework and is the most comprehensive event datasets that collects events from most national and local news media worldwide.#### Research MethodologyExisting international relations studies utilizing the GDELT database incorporate variables such as number of events, average of GS, and the sum of GS. However, the number of events does not consider the varying impacts of different events on bilateral relationships. Furthermore, the GS fails to acknowledge the spatiotemporal differences in the influence of the same type of event. Specifically, GS values are assigned to events of the same type in different spaces. This shortcoming becomes evident when we consider a visit by the president of United States to Vietnam and Germany. These are, in essence, similar events, but they are assigned the same GS value. However, the impact of a national leader's visit to different countries on their relationship should vary.To address this issue, a more suitable indicator is needed to capture the true nature and significance of events. We utilized an alternative indicator, Number of Mentions (NoM), in conjunction with GS, arriving at the GS-modified (GSM):(3)where the minimum value of NoM is 1, and GSM is the improved indicator.### Results#### Dynamic Evolution of Asia-Pacific Countries' CRI with China and the US—A Case Study of AustraliaBased on the GRI, this study calculates the geopolitical relations of 19 Asia-Pacific countries with China and the United States regarding cooperation and conflicts. Australia serves as a case study to examine the evolving dynamics of its interactions with China and the US (see Fig.2), where the blue and red curves in sub-figures (a) and (b) represent the time series of GRI indicators for Australia-China and Australia-United States in cooperation and conflict, respectively, on a monthly time scale. It can be observed that the curve is filled with various peaks, which can be accurately correlated with specific events occurring between Australia and China, as well as between Australia and the United States. Consequently, the GRI constructed in this study can accurately capture the key events in the interaction between the two countries, and these results are also valid for other countries.#### Spatio-Temporal Heterogeneity of Hedging Strategies' Effects for Asia-Pacific States with Sino-US#### Categorization of Asia-Pacific countries based on the implementation effect of hedging strategies.Fig.2(c) demonstrates significant differences in hedging strategies across different periods. Similarly, each state in the Asia-Pacific region follows its hedging strategy logic, and the results for individual states are highly different. In other words, there are huge differences in the hedging strategies of Asia-Pacific countries against China and the US, and the actual effects of these strategies will naturally have temporal-spatial heterogeneity. Therefore, we argue that a combination of the four-quadrant model and GDELT data provides a quantitative assessment of the effects of Australia's China-US hedging strategy.#### Dynamic evolution of the implementation effect of hedging strategies in different periods.The dynamic evolutionary characteristics of the hedging strategy effects for Asia-Pacific countries are summarized into the following three categories: significantly closer to China, significantly closer to the US, and swinging.By comparing the effects of hedging strategies adopted by Asia-Pacific countries during four American presidential terms, it becomes clear that the relative proximity of these countries to China has generally decreased. Specifically, those countries that align more closely with the US have experienced a consistent and significant decline in their relationship with China. In contrast, nations that maintain closer ties with China have observed an upward trend in their interactions. Furthermore, countries that fluctuate between these two influences have displayed a "V-shaped" pattern, with a notable increase in their closeness to China since the Obama presidency.### DiscussionThese findings demonstrate that our theoretical framework and quantitative methods not only aid in evaluating and monitoring the execution effects of Asia-Pacific countries' diplomatic strategies toward China and the US but also provide guidance for necessary strategic