Bridging the Gaps: Regional Deterrence and Infrastructure Resilience in Eastern Europe

The Urgent Need for Cross-Border Infrastructure Development

The war in Ukraine has highlighted the crucial role of robust cross-border infrastructure. Effective deterrence against aggression requires seamless logistical coordination, rapid Allied responses, and efficient movement of both military and civilian resources. However, the current state of roads, rail networks, and ports in the region, particularly those shared by Romania, Ukraine, and Moldova, falls far short of these demands.

Pre-war, crossing borders remained a cumbersome process. The 2022 invasion exacerbated these challenges, with outdated infrastructure and mismatched protocols creating logistical bottlenecks. Roads became overwhelmed, and scenes of hundreds of trucks queuing for weeks became commonplace, as I witnessed firsthand at the Orlivka-Isaccea ferry crossing.

The Limits of Implementation and Strategic Hesitancy

While EU accession and association processes have emphasized cross-border integration, implementation has been plagued by challenges. Despite substantial funding from the EU, US, and other sources, including the European Neighborhood Initiative and the Three Seas Initiative, projects have been stymied by bureaucratic hurdles, corruption, and short-sighted political maneuvering.

Furthermore, the EU's continued funding of cross-border projects with Russia, even after the annexation of Crimea, underscored a strategic hesitancy to confront Russian aggression. This approach ultimately undermined the credibility of deterrence efforts.

Wartime Solidarity, Black Markets, and Regional Vulnerabilities

The war has spurred improvements in cross-border infrastructure, including the establishment of Solidarity Lanes to facilitate Ukrainian exports. However, these improvements are often ad-hoc and insufficient to address the underlying issues. Logistical bottlenecks persist, and the "black grain trade," fueled by corruption and tax evasion, highlights the continued vulnerability of the region to criminal exploitation.

Existing organized crime networks, including human, arms, and drug trafficking, have been amplified by the war. The vulnerability of displaced populations, especially women and children, to trafficking is a particularly pressing concern.

"(...) in many instances, they [the children] were entrusted to acquaintances to cross the border. In one heartbreaking case, the mother died, the father was at war, and with no immediate family, the child crossed the border accompanied by neighbors, with no documents whatsoever.” - Representative of Eliberare, a Romanian anti-trafficking NGO.

Combating Trafficking and Strengthening Border Security

While Ukraine has implemented stricter controls on foreign-supplied arsenals, coordination between various programs and donors remains fragmented. Systemic corruption within border agencies further hinders progress. Even with increased scrutiny, smuggling persists, and people smuggling, particularly of conscript-age Ukrainian men, has become a lucrative illicit market.

Romania's recent accession to the Schengen Area underscores the need for enhanced border security. However, despite new acquisitions, cargo scanning capabilities remain inadequate, leaving ports like Constanta vulnerable to criminal infiltration.

River to Sea: Exploiting Waterways and Energy Dependencies

Russia has consistently exploited regional vulnerabilities through criminal networks. The Danube River, a vital artery for Ukrainian exports, has also become a conduit for illicit trade, including the smuggling of Russian crude oil. Bulgaria's exemption from the EU oil embargo has further complicated the situation, exacerbating political instability and creating opportunities for profiteering.

Border Crossings, Mobility, and the Illusion of Proximity

Limited bridge connectivity across the Danube remains a major chokepoint. Delays plague even smaller-scale bridge projects, highlighting the disconnect between political intentions and administrative execution. The lack of standardized railway networks and the poor condition of existing infrastructure further impede mobility.

Unfinished Business and the Path to Resilience

A credible regional deterrence strategy requires addressing not only external threats but also internal vulnerabilities. This involves tackling corruption, streamlining administrative processes, and investing in long-term infrastructure development. It is not simply about building bridges and roads, but also fostering greater cooperation and strategic foresight.

Moving forward, incorporating Ukraine's reconstruction into a regional deterrence agenda is essential. This entails deeper partnerships in critical infrastructure sectors and sustained support for governance reforms. Only through comprehensive and collaborative efforts can Eastern Europe build true resilience and secure its future.